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SNOW - Questions, Forecasts & Reports About Snow
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MtnMan



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:19 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

so far, no snow below about 7,500 ft.
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Funyan005



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going up baldy between storms tomorrow morning. If you see a youngin with overkill orange boots it is I!

Will post pics if its not too foggy
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Location: yes

PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking good this morning!
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MtnMan



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Too bad it only lasted about 2 hours. 2-4" avg across the mtns from 5,000- 7,000 ft.  Maybe a a decent amount more (6-12"+) above 8,500 ft as the rain yesterday might have been all snow up that high.
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norma r



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Location: Ventura County, CA

PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baldy was GREAT today!  Should have brought crampons.  Winter is here.  Hopefully it will stay awhile.  Pix to come...
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Taco
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yay!
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Location: Los Angeles

PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:36 pm    Post subject: San Gabriel -- snow conditions? Reply with quote

Greetings!

I will have family visiting from Europe this w-e and I was thinking of taking them on a stroll to either Baden Powell or Ice house saddle.

Can someone share any info regarding the snow conditions? Would it require crampons & ice axe?

TIA.
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Location: Venice, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://sangabrielmnts.myfreeforum.org/ftopic3265-0.php

Pay attention to post number 5 and beyond. I'm a newbie, and feel fortunate that I found out what can happen on a relatively benign slope. Who knows what would have happened had I made it past that point, and into more treacherous areas where the dangers could have been worse. If you and your family have equipment and experience, by all means bring it and enjoy the mountain.
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baden Powell will very likely still have snow. I would much rather take relatives up to Icehouse Saddle, as it's a tad safer.

Cheers mate
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norma r



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Location: Ventura County, CA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with Taco.  With no new snow you are going to encounter hard snow and icy conditions down low where the old snow has melted then frozen at night.  if you don't mind driving further, the South Fork trail of San Gorgonio does not have any steep stuff to Horse Camp and Poop-out Hill beyond and is very beautiful.  I find it prettier than the hike to the Baldy Ski Hut.  they both have a traverse that when icy will sketch a newbie out if they are just in hiking boots.
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Location: Los Angeles

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

norma r wrote:
...if you don't mind driving further, the South Fork trail of San Gorgonio does not have any steep stuff to Horse Camp and Poop-out Hill beyond and is very beautiful.  ...


I like your suggestion.

South Fork is indeed beautiful. I have been there a few times and the crowds are almost non-existent. Sadly, Icehouse trail is looking more than a mall during the holiday season.

I just hope I won't require chains for the car and crampons for everyone when going to Gorgonio...

Thanks to all for your input.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pineapple Express!


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Location: Oceanside

PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:11 pm    Post subject: Conditions after the storm? Reply with quote

Do you guys know what the conditions will be like after this storm thats rolling through rolls through?

So I guess Post Christmas?
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not too surprisingly, one of the weather wankers over on the San Gorgonio forum says he wouldn't doubt over 10 feet of snow on Baldy when all is said and done.

I think he's smoking too much San Gorgonzola, but I have no basis for thinking that.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bens Weather is a great forecast for the Big Bear area. http://bensweather.com/
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it gets cold, we'll have a great start. If not, probably next to nothing.
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He219
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doesn't look like it will get cold enough. The pineapple express will just wash into the ocean instead of sticking on our summits.
Overnight low temps are projected to only be 33F by Wednesday night at Baldy Village
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turtle



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Location: Sherman Oaks, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He219 wrote:
Doesn't look like it will get cold enough.

The forecast for the higher elevations just got a lot more promising!  Shocked

Maybe one of the math-savy folks from the HSS can add up the numbers at the upper end of the range and convert to feet!
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Location: Sherman Oaks, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Hawaii with love... woohoo!

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whatmeworry



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As people get out and about, please share any observations you've got re: avalanche hazards, general conditions, etc.

If snow levels drop as expected, we're likely to see a period of considerable+ danger conditions.

Avalanche Awareness:  http://www.avalanche.org/tutorial/tutorial.html

Be safe out there!
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Location: yes

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

at least the sierra is getting some, mammoth reporting:

Quote:
Since Friday, the storm total is 8 1/2 feet to 12 1/2 feet of snow! Mammoth received 27” of snow in the last 24 hrs and is expecting at least another 1-2 feet throughout today. This storm is only 5 inches of snow away from being the snowiest December ever recorded since 1969 when Mammoth first started recording! Mammoth has also just been named to having the most snow in all of North America!
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle wrote:
He219 wrote:
Doesn't look like it will get cold enough.

The forecast for the higher elevations just got a lot more promising!  Shocked

Maybe one of the math-savy folks from the HSS can add up the numbers at the upper end of the range and convert to feet!

Gonna have to take my shoes off for this one, but here goes...
(22+31+26+30+25+11) / 12 = 12.08333333 feet
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leeza22



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Location: Hollywood, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 3:40 pm    Post subject: local avalanch advisory Reply with quote

Does anyone know how come there are no local avalanche advisories ever issued for our local mountains? Planning to go up San Jacinto over the weekend, if the storm ends by Wednesday/Thursday, and wondering if it will be safe. There will be lots of new snow above 9000ft.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

leeza,
from my experience, San Jacinto from the tram does not have any slopes that tend to slide.   plus there are lots of trees which also reduce the threat of slides.  care to respond Hikin Jim?  snowshoes might finally be necessary.   check the San J Board for TR's from those who go up on Thurs and Fri. http://www.mtsanjacinto.info/index.php

and have fun!  Very Happy
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leeza22



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Location: Hollywood, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Norma,
Thanks, that helps a lot, since we haven't been up this mountain yet (just Baldy and San Gorgonio), and we don't have too much winter experience. We just got our first crampons, ice axes, etc. So, we have all the needed equipment, and are hoping to get some experience now Smile It should be fun!
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whatmeworry



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:36 pm    Post subject: Re: local avalanch advisory Reply with quote

leeza22 wrote:
Does anyone know how come there are no local avalanche advisories ever issued for our local mountains? Planning to go up San Jacinto over the weekend, if the storm ends by Wednesday/Thursday, and wondering if it will be safe. There will be lots of new snow above 9000ft.


The local mountains are not considered traditional avalanche troublespots.  We just don't get the repeated weather or persistent conditions that they do in the Sierra or Cascades or the continental ranges.

The risk locally tends to be very transient - our snowpack typically stabilizes very quickly and is usually fairly uniform.  24-48 hours after a storm cycle is generally sufficient for local risk to diminish.  This, of course, depends on many, many factors associated with weather, snowpack, topography/terrain.  

Of course none of that helps you if you are in the mountains when the risk is still high (witness the deaths we get every few years).  The bottom line is - YOU are going to have to be able to recognize the hazard and do what you can to mitigate it.  

A good place to start is
http://www.avalanche.ca/cac/training/online-course or the prior AAA link to give you an intro.  

Take an awareness or level 1 AIARE class if you can.  There is a lot to learn and you need qualified instruction AND time in the field applying the skills.  http://www.avalanche.org/edu_list.php?state=CA

Forgot this link as another good starter reference....

http://www.fsavalanche.com/Defaul...3&LinkId=9&ParentLinkId=2

Be safe!
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leeza22



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Location: Hollywood, CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for all the cool info! I actually did check out earlier link and took the online course, and have been reading up on the subject, but you are right...being out there and getting instruction is important.
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just got back from near Smith Mountain. Snow was down to about 6500 on South Mount Hawkins.
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He219
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Location: Balboa/Guadalahabra

PostPosted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 7:29 pm    Post subject: Something wicked this way comes .. Reply with quote

Oh Yieah!



Last edited by He219 on Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Location: Three Rivers, CA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LA County real-time rain map: http://ladpw.org/wrd/precip/alert_rain/index.cfm
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The forecasted chance of below 0 wind chill values is pretty scary! Pretty wicked indeed
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapCl...nit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -10.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting reports.

High winds could transport a lot of snow from windward to lee slopes.  There is a pretty good chance we could see some windslab building in our local mountains.  

I've heard reports (not personally confirmed) of surface hoar that, if it remains intact and gets buried could form a weak layer in the snowpack.  The recent snows seem to have been consolidating pretty well with the recent weather, but I've been wondering about any deeply buried (from the pre-Christmas storm) weak or sliding layers.  

Anyone dug any pits and have findings they'd be willing to share?

Be safe!
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Location: Ventura County, CA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fritz, i was up on the bowl today.  It's ready for you!   Very Happy
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Location: Anaheim, ca

PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

whatmeworry wrote:
Interesting reports.

High winds could transport a lot of snow from windward to lee slopes.  There is a pretty good chance we could see some windslab building in our local mountains.  

Be safe!


We did not dig a pit, but I agree with what you are thinking, tomorrow after the snow stops, could be dangerous in some places, like the lower two thiirds of the Baldy Bowl.
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Location: Balboa/Guadalahabra

PostPosted: Wed Dec 29, 2010 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

norma r wrote:
Fritz, i was up on the bowl today.  It's ready for you!

Very Happy
Thanks for the intel, Norma!

Be safe and have a Happy New Year, everyone!

Cheers-
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Location: California, USA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:29 pm    Post subject: California could be struck by winter ‘superstorms' Reply with quote

Scientists warn California could be struck by winter ‘superstorm’

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_the...ld-be-struck-by-winter-superstorm

Quote:
It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.

The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Something like this would make California less attractive to people.
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sweet!
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Location: Orange County, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taco wrote:
Sweet!
I'm offering the following course at a local community college soon:  Ark building 101.

HJ
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:47 pm    Post subject: Re: California could be struck by winter ‘superstorms' Reply with quote

fear mongering at its finest!

I made a model of the earth in matlab. then I applied massive vibrations to it. things fell apart and died. I also simulated what would happen if we lived with dinosaurs. they would step on us. we would not live.

but hey, I drive a Civic, so I'm going to heaven, right?
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Location: Pasadena, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hondas for Heaven.

This state could use a good flush! It might eliminate the ACH for good!
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Location: Orange County, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HikeUp wrote:
Hondas for Heaven.

This state could use a good flush! It might eliminate the ACH for good!
Shoot.  I was hoping it would flush Sacramento in to the ocean.

HJ
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Location: Glendale, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HikeUp wrote:
Hondas for Heaven.

This state could use a good flush! It might eliminate the ACH for good!


Joking but... perhaps you're right.

It's starting to look a little bit like 2009 was the last great year for ACH. It used to seem so permanent to me, but now I don't think it's ridiculous to wonder if the highway will even be here in 20 years.
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Location: Out on the trail.....

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hikin_Jim wrote:
Taco wrote:
Sweet!
I'm offering the following course at a local community college soon:  Ark building 101.

HJ


apparently you've not seen the documentary 2012

1500m tidal waves spit at these puny storms!  Laughing

But seriously 500 year storms are not surprising
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Location: Three Rivers, CA

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's the Aluminum, Barium and Strontium that "they" are spraying in the stratosphere  Twisted Evil
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Location: Ventura County, CA

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Layne Cantrell wrote:
Joking but... perhaps you're right.  It's starting to look a little bit like 2009 was the last great year for ACH. It used to seem so permanent to me, but now I don't think it's ridiculous to wonder if the highway will even be here in 20 years.

Sad another Bridge to Nowhere?...
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Location: San Dieger

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:07 pm    Post subject: Links for snowfall / weather history Reply with quote

Hey gang,

I've been in Ohio for a bit, which has a lot of cold and snow but no rewards....super flat.  I'm back, itching to get in the hills, but I'm worried the majority of the good local snow has gone bye-bye...read some reports of major melt and crappy conditions otherwise.

That being said, is there a thread that I missed with some links for snowfall history in the Gabes/Gorgons/etc or weather history to review - maybe get an idea of timing climbs and such on?  Gracias.
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Location: Orange County

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Burchey, there's more than enough snow on the northside trails or chutes to find some decent snow, it's the south side that is in bad shape.

BadenPowell has snow on the north side, San Gorgonio does as well, depends how far you want to go, how much you are looking for and how willing you are to travel the backcountry to get to it?

There's a small storm headed our way next week, let's hope it develops into something bigger and dumps some snow on the front of the ranges where most of us like to go  Very Happy
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Location: San Dieger

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gracias, lilbitmo.  I'm thinking maybe going up Mill Creek to check out the galena gauntlet or whatever they call it, up the north side of that ridge with Galena Peak, etc.  That would most likely be the following weekend, not the one coming up.  I'll cross my fingers for some fresh dump, although I probably won't need it for the plans above.
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Location: Stuntin in the trap son

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Go north, my son... Cool
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Location: San Dieger

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd love to, none of the guys I'd typically summit with want to drive very far.  Blah.

On the topic - does anyone know of a decent online database of recent and long past snowfall history?


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"Their only motive was a great ideal; this was what linked together mountaineers so widely dissimilar in background and so diverse in character."
Maurice Herzog, Annapurna